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大市分析 ( 2012年 11月 28日 )

  [2012-11-29 11:44:55] 

大市分析      ( 2012 11 28 )

恒生指數            支持位 : 21600             阻力位 : 22000

國企指數            支持位 : 10300             阻力位 : 10500

上個交易日受隔晚外圍美股跌勢影響 , 大市低開。中資銀行股普遍偏軟 , 拖低大市。在輾轉反覆之後 , 恒生指數低收 , 不過跌幅收窄。最後恒生指數收市位是 21709, 下跌 135 點。恒指成份股成交金額 167 億元 , 而大市總成交 467 億元 , 投資氣氛審慎 , 交投量相應減少。 從技術分析 10 天移動平均線在 21535, 50 天移動平均線處於 21303, 然而大市於 10 天移動平均線之上徘徊 , 呈現典型鞏固走勢。 RSI-14 55, 這個技術指標在中位線 50 水平以上反覆 , 顯示承接力仍強。 剖析過去一個中期走勢 , 以黃金分割線推測 , 至於上個低位 ( 2012 9 26 ) 20485, 而最近高位 ( 2012 11 9 ) 22149, 因此從高位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位在於 21513, 0.382 關鍵位之上進行鞏固。 而傳統基金等動向方面 , 整體投資氣氛不明朗 , 抱觀望態度 , 預測未來數個交易日 , 恒生指數波幅在 21600 22000 之間。綜合分析 , 國企紅籌類股份表現勢將主導大市走勢方向。 中資股份方面 , 國企指數收市位在 10399, 下跌 129 點。至於過去的中長線走勢波幅 , 以黃金分割線預測走勢 , 上個低點 ( 2012 9 26 ) 9585, 而最近頂位 ( 2012 11 2 ) 則位於 10900, 由頂位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位是位於 10397, 0.500 關鍵位處於 10242, 圍繞 0.382 關鍵位水平徘徊 , 處於典型的調整階段。預料短期之內 , 國企指數波幅處於 10300 10500 的機會大。

股份分析

名稱 : 中材股份       ( 01893 )

建議 : $2.35    ( 買入 )

目標 : $2.65

阻力位 : $2.41

支持位 : $2.21

從股價圖表分析 , 10 天移動平均線位於 $2.34, 10 天移動平均線之上徘徊 , 呈現典型鞏固走勢。 RSI-14 51, 技術指標 升穿中位線 50 水平 , 呈現上升訊號。 剖析過去一個中期浪股價波幅 , 以黃金分割線推測 , 回顧前次低點 ( 2012 9 6 ) $1.78, 最近高位 ( 2012 11 2 ) $2.64, 由高位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位處於 $2.31, 0.500 關鍵位則位於 $2.21, 有跡象顯示在 0.382 關鍵位水平之上反覆上落 , 作勢重展上升軌道。

 

 

 

Market Summary      ( 28 / 11 / 2012 )

HSI             Support : 21600             Resistance : 22000

CEI             Support : 10300             Resistance : 10500

Hong Kong Stocks gap down on the overnight plunge of U.S. Market.   Chinese Banks lost ground, which dragged down the market.   After a choppy session, HSI closed lower but pared the loss.   It eventually finished at 21709, down 135 points. The turnover of HSI Constituents is $16.7 billion as the total market turnover is $46.7 billion.   Market turnover decreases as scenario becomes cautious.   By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 21535.   50-day moving average is at 21303.   It stays in a typical consolidation as it hovers above 10-day moving average.   In the meantime, RSI-14 is 55.   It swings above 50-mark level, which suggests the market internal to be strong.   Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 26/9/2012 ) is at 20485 while the recent high ( 9/11/2012 ) is 22149.   Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is at 21513.   Meanwhile, it consolidates above the 0.382 retracement.   Long Funds sat on sidelines as uncertainties are hanging over the market.   The range of HSI is likely between 21600 and 22000 in coming days. Performance of China Plays will be the key factor for the market direction.   In the meantime, CEI finally ended at 10399, down 129 points. In the medium-term market movement, the previous low ( 26/9/2012 ) is 9585 as the recent high ( 2/11/2012 ) is at 10900.   Measuring from the recent low, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is 10397.   0.500 correction from the top is 10242.   It hovers around the 0.382 retracement, and stays in a typical correction.   The range of CEI is likely between 10300 and 10500 in near term.

Stock Analysis

Stock :      SINOMA    ( 01893 )

Suggestion : $2.35    ( Buy )

Target :         $2.65

Resistance :   $2.41

Support :       $2.21

Reading from the trend of the share price, 10-day moving average is now at $2.34.   It stays in a typical consolidation as it hovers above 10-day moving average.   Meanwhile, RSI-14 is 51.   It jumps over the 50-mark level, which unveils buying signal.   Analyzing the share price movement, the previous low ( 6/9/2012 ) is at $1.78 and the recent high ( 2/11/2012 ) is $2.64.   Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci   0.382 retracement is $2.31.   0.500 correction from the recent high is at $2.21.   It seems to dance on the 0.382 retracement, and poises to resume an upward trend.  

 

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