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大市分析 ( 2012年 11月 27日 )

  [2012-11-28 12:14:27] 

大市分析      ( 2012 11 27 )

恒生指數            支持位 : 21600             阻力位 : 22000

國企指數            支持位 : 10500             阻力位 : 10700

上日上升動力不足 , 大市走勢輾轉反覆 , 缺乏明確方向。週期性股份走勢偏軟 , 拖低大市。大市在窄幅上落之後 , 恒生指數終於變動不大。終於恒生指數收市位是 21844, 下跌 18 點。恒指成份股成交金額 167 億元 , 而大市總成交 495 億元 , 投資氣氛審慎 , 交投量相應減少。 從技術分析 10 天移動平均線在 21508, 50 天移動平均線處於 21281, 然而指數穩守在 10 天移動平均線之上徘徊 , 反映走勢靠穩。 RSI-14 59, 這個技術指標在中位線 50 水平以上反覆 , 顯示承接力仍強。且看技術指標 MACD 的快線爬上跨越慢線 , MACD 呈現上升訊號。 剖析過去一個中期走勢 , 以黃金分割線推測 , 至於上個低位 ( 2012 9 26 ) 20485, 而最近高位 ( 2012 11 9 ) 22149, 因此從高位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位在於 21513, 有跡象顯示在 0.382 關鍵位水平之上反覆上落 , 處於典型的整固階段。 而傳統基金等動向方面 , 整體投資氣氛不明朗 , 抱觀望態度 , 預測未來數個交易日 , 恒生指數波幅在 21600 22000 之間。 中資股份方面 , 國企指數收市位在 10528, 下跌 41 點。至於過去的中長線走勢波幅 , 以黃金分割線預測走勢 , 上個低點 ( 2012 9 26 ) 9585, 而最近頂位 ( 2012 11 2 ) 則位於 10900, 由頂位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位是位於 10397, 有跡象顯示在 0.382 關鍵位水平之上反覆上落 , 處於典型的整固階段。預料短期之內 , 國企指數波幅處於 10500 10700 的機會大。

股份分析

名稱 : 越秀地產       ( 00123 )

建議 : $2.35    ( 買入 )

目標 : $2.6

阻力位 : $2.4

支持位 : $2.23

從股價圖表分析 , 10 天移動平均線位於 $2.29, 50 天移動平均線在於 $2.12, 穩守在 10 天移動平均線之上徘徊 , 反映走勢靠穩。 RSI-14 72, 料在技術指標步入超買區之前 , 勢可延展目前的上升軌道。 剖析過去一個短期浪股價波幅 , 以黃金分割線推測 , 回顧前次低點 ( 2012 11 19 ) $2.23, 最近高位 ( 2012 11 26 ) $2.4, 由高位回落計算 , 0.382 關鍵位處於 $2.33, 0.618 關鍵位在於 $2.29, 有跡象顯示在 0.382 關鍵位水平之上反覆上落 , 作勢延展上升軌道。

 

Market Summary      ( 27 / 11 / 2012 )

HSI             Support : 21600             Resistance : 22000

CEI             Support : 10500             Resistance : 10700

Market swung without a clear direction amid the lack of upward momentum.   Cyclical Plays lost ground, which dragged down the market.   After the market hovered within a tight range, HSI remained unchanged.   It finally finished at 21844, down 18 points. The turnover of Blue Chips is $16.7 billion as the total market turnover is $49.5 billion.   Market turnover decreases as scenario becomes cautious.   By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 21508.   50-day moving average is at 21281.   It dances above the 10-day moving average, which mirrors to head north.   In the meantime, RSI-14 is 59.   It swings above 50-mark level, which suggests the market internal to be strong.   In the technical indicator MACD, Fast Line climbs above Slow Line and unveils a buying signal.Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 26/9/2012 ) is at 20485 while the recent high ( 9/11/2012 ) is 22149.   Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is at 21513.   Meanwhile, it seems to dance on the 0.382 retracement, and stays in a typical consolidation.   Long Funds sat on sidelines as uncertainties are hanging over the market.   The range of HSI is likely between 21600 and 22000 in coming days. In the meantime, CEI eventually ended at 10528, down 41 points. In the medium-term market movement, the previous low ( 26/9/2012 ) is 9585 as the recent high ( 2/11/2012 ) is at 10900.   Measuring from the recent low, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is 10397.   It seems to dance on the 0.382 retracement, and stays in a typical consolidation.   The range of CEI is likely between 10500 and 10700 in near term.

Stock Analysis

Stock :      YUEXIU PROPERTY    ( 00123 )

Suggestion : $2.35    ( Buy )

Target :         $2.6

Resistance :   $2.4

Support :       $2.23

Reading from the trend of the share price, 10-day moving average is now at $2.29.   50-day moving average is at $2.12.   It dances above the 10-day moving average, which mirrors to head north.   Meanwhile, RSI-14 is 72.   It extends the recent upward trend before RSI-14 reaches over-bought area.   Analyzing the share price movement, the previous low ( 19/11/2012 ) is at $2.23 and the recent high ( 26/11/2012 ) is $2.4.   Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci   0.382 retracement is $2.33.   0.618 retracement is at $2.29.   It seems to dance on the 0.382 retracement, and poises to trace further upward trend.  

 

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